Home Prediction Software Development Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Augur: Prediction Market Platform Comparison
Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Augur: Prediction Market Platform Comparison
Here’s a scenario your executive team has likely encountered: It’s 2 PM on a Tuesday. A major economic announcement is coming Thursday. Your risk management team is running models. Your policy analysts are on calls. Meanwhile, traders on Kalshi are already pricing in three different outcomes. By Wednesday morning, the market’s collective intelligence has already aggregated thousands of independent bets into a probability distribution that often outpaces traditional forecasts by hours or days.
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Table of Contents
This is the prediction market landscape of 2025—and it’s no longer the fringe play it was five years ago.
In October 2025 alone, Kalshi and Polymarket processed a combined $8.4 billion in trading volume, with Kalshi recording $4.39 billion and Polymarket hitting $3.02 billion. The annualized volume for Kalshi has surged to $50 billion—a staggering jump from just $300 million in 2023. These aren’t niche numbers anymore. These are the metrics of a market that’s become infrastructure.
But here’s the challenge for B2B decision-makers: the three leading platforms—Kalshi, Polymarket, and Augur—operate on fundamentally different architectures, regulatory frameworks, and strategic philosophies. Choosing the right one (or understanding when to build your own) isn’t a trivial decision. It shapes your compliance posture, your technical debt, your operational risk, and ultimately, your competitive advantage.
Why This Matters Right Now
The prediction market space has undergone a seismic shift. Kalshi just raised $1 billion in funding, doubling its valuation to $11 billion in just two months. Polymarket is pursuing a $12-15 billion valuation with its own $1 billion raise. Institutional capital—from Sequoia Capital, CapitalG, Andreessen Horowitz, and Paradigm—is flowing in. This signals something crucial: prediction markets are transitioning from speculative experiments to mainstream financial infrastructure.
For enterprises operating in the USA, UK, Europe, and LATAM, this transition creates both opportunity and urgency. You need to understand where these platforms differ, how they’re regulated, and which one (or what custom deployment strategy) aligns with your organization’s risk tolerance, technical maturity, and strategic goals.
The Three Architectures at Play
- Kalshi: The regulated heavyweight. CFTC-designated contract market (DCM), fiat-first, institutional-grade compliance, and proven traction in sports and macro events.
- Polymarket: The decentralized disruptor. Layer-2 Polygon blockchain, USDC-based, global accessibility, rapid market creation, and massive niche market depth.
- Augur: The pioneer with staying power. Token-based governance via REP, fully on-chain dispute resolution, and a strong crypto-native community.
Each represents a distinct bet on the future of prediction markets. Each serves different enterprise needs. And each comes with trade-offs that will determine whether your organization thrives or struggles in deploying prediction market infrastructure.
What You’ll Discover in This Guide
By the end of this analysis, you’ll understand:- The regulatory landscape shaping each platform and its implications for USA, UK, European, and LATAM operators.
- Technical architecture differences that impact speed, liquidity, scalability, and compliance burden.
- Real-world use cases where each platform delivers the most value—from financial institutions to enterprises to crypto-native organizations.
- A decision framework to choose between them or determine when to deploy clone solutions like Kalshi clone scripts, Polymarket clone scripts, or custom prediction market platform development.
Regulatory Framework & Compliance – Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and Augur Really Diverge
For US, UK, and European operators, the first filter is not UX or fees. It is: Can this prediction market setup pass regulatory scrutiny and scale without becoming a legal liability? That is where Kalshi, Polymarket, and Augur take three very different paths.Kalshi: The CFTC-Regulated Benchmark
Kalshi operates as a fully regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM) under the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), putting it in the same regulatory bucket as major futures exchanges.- Contracts are treated as event-based derivatives, not gambling products, which is crucial for banks, funds, and US corporates.
- Kalshi must maintain robust market surveillance, capital requirements, reporting, and fair access standards similar to other registered exchanges.
Polymarket: Decentralized, Permissionless – and Under Scrutiny
Polymarket runs on the Polygon blockchain with USDC as the primary settlement asset, making it globally accessible and crypto-native by design.- Polymarket previously settled with the CFTC in 2022 over unregistered event contracts, which led to geofencing and restructuring for US users.
- Today it still operates in a gray zone from a US regulatory standpoint, while remaining attractive to non-US users in Europe and LATAM who value lower friction and faster market creation.
Augur: Fully Decentralized and Governance-Heavy
Augur is an early Ethereum-based prediction marketplace relying on the REP token for market creation, staking, and dispute resolution.- Augur is protocol-first, platform-second—there is no central operator to license in the way regulators are used to dealing with.
- Governance and dispute resolution are handled through token-weighted voting, which fits DAO-style governance but complicates accountability for regulated entities.
What This Means for Enterprise Compliance
If you’re operating in the USA, UK, or EU, how these models map to your compliance stack is non-negotiable:- Kalshi-style architecture: Best suited for firms that need exchange-like oversight, full KYC/AML, audit trails, and regulator dialogue from day one.
- Polymarket-style architecture: More appropriate for global, crypto-forward businesses comfortable managing additional regulatory risk and tailoring access by jurisdiction.
- Augur-style architecture: Works when decentralization and censorship-resistance are core values, often in DAO ecosystems or internal, permissioned forks.
- A Kalshi clone script or Kalshi market clone software that mirrors regulated exchange mechanics but is customized for your jurisdictions and internal policies.
- A Polymarket clone script or Augur market clone software for permissioned, enterprise-grade deployments that keep the UX and market logic while layering your own compliance and access controls.
Regulatory Snapshot Table: Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Augur
| Feature | Kalshi | Polymarket | Augur |
| Primary Regulatory Status | CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM) | Previously sanctioned by CFTC; operates in gray area for US, more open globally | Protocol-level decentralization; no central operator license |
| KYC/AML | Full KYC/AML for users and counterparties | Varies by interface; on-chain core is permissionless | None at protocol level; up to frontends/wrappers |
| Settlement Currency | Fiat (USD) with some crypto rails | USDC on Polygon | ETH/REP and stablecoins depending on deployment |
| Best Fit Regions | USA (institutional), expanding to UK/EU | Global (especially Europe, LATAM, crypto hubs) | Crypto-native ecosystems globally |
| Enterprise Comfort Level | High for regulated firms | Medium; depends on risk appetite | Low–medium for traditional firms; higher for DAOs |
Technical Architecture, Speed, Liquidity & UX
This is where Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Augur stops being an abstract “prediction market comparison” and turns into concrete engineering and business trade-offs. If you’re thinking about your own prediction market platform development, this is the layer you’ll end up cloning, integrating, or improving on.
How Each Platform Is Built Under the Hood
1. Kalshi – Centralized Exchange Infrastructure
Kalshi runs a classic centralized exchange stack: matching engine, order books, custody, and risk systems all live in a regulated, off-chain environment similar to a US derivatives venue. This design gives it:
- High throughput and low latency suitable for institutional traders.
- Full control over KYC, limits, surveillance, and fiat rails.
For enterprises in the USA, UK, and Europe used to dealing with exchanges, this architecture feels familiar and easier to integrate with existing infrastructure.
2.Polymarket – Hybrid On-/Off-Chain Design
Polymarket uses a hybrid model: order matching and UX are handled off-chain for speed, while settlement and asset custody occur on Polygon via smart contracts.
- Off-chain: central limit order book (CLOB) for fast matching and a responsive UI.
- On-chain: USDC collateral, final settlement, and verifiable ownership.
This hybrid setup is exactly why a Polymarket clone software is attractive to global operators: you can get crypto-native transparency without sacrificing performance.
3. Augur – Fully On-Chain Protocol
Augur’s architecture is heavily on-chain with smart contracts handling market creation, trading, and dispute resolution, all backed by the REP token.
- Maximum trust minimization.
- Higher latency and gas costs, especially on Ethereum mainnet (though newer versions use Layer 2s).
A pure Augur market clone software is best suited to projects where decentralization and censorship-resistance are non-negotiable, and user patience with on-chain UX is acceptable.
Speed, Fees, and Liquidity Behavior
From a product and P&L standpoint, speed + cost + liquidity is what your users feel every day.
- Kalshi: Centralized matching means smooth execution, but users pay variable fees (often a few percent) and are fully inside Kalshi’s custody and risk framework. This is ideal for institutions that care more about reliability and regulated slippage than on-chain purity.
- Polymarket: No trading fees, only relayer/network fees, and very fast execution via its hybrid engine. This is why it hosts tens of thousands of markets and dominates “long-tail” cultural and crypto markets.
- Augur: Historically struggled with liquidity and UX because everything was on-chain; gas costs and slower interaction made it less attractive for high-frequency or casual users. Layer-2 deployments have improved this but haven’t fully closed the gap.
For a B2B operator, a Kalshi clone script might be the right move when you want tight spreads, curated markets, and predictable performance. A Polymarket-style design fits if you want wide coverage, user-generated markets, and strong DeFi interoperability.
User Experience: Who Are You Building For?
Kalshi UX is intentionally familiar to US retail and institutional traders:
- Email sign-up, KYC, bank cards, ACH; no wallet required.
- Clean, vertical-focused UI (sports, macro, politics).
This works extremely well if your target audience is US-based retail, hedge funds, or corporates who do not want to manage wallets or keys.
Polymarket UX is built for crypto-native and global users:
- Connect wallet, trade with USDC, settle on-chain.
- Markets exist on everything from US CPI prints to OpenAI drama and European football.
If your ideal user understands MetaMask and stablecoins, a Polymarket vs Kalshi style decision usually leans toward Polymarket’s breadth and speed.
Augur UX is more technical:
- REP staking, multi-step flows, and a governance-first mindset.
- Best for DAO communities and advanced DeFi users, not first-time bettors.
For a commercial B2B product, Augur’s UX is usually something you borrow logic from, not copy wholesale.
Feature & Dynamics Comparison Table
Here’s a concise table you can use in Part 3 to anchor the “Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Augur” conversation:| Dimension | Kalshi | Polymarket | Augur |
| Core Infrastructure | Centralized exchange | Hybrid: off-chain CLOB + on-chain settlement | Mostly on-chain protocol |
| Settlement Asset | Fiat USD (with some crypto rails) | USDC on Polygon | ETH/REP and compatible assets |
| Market Creation | Curated by exchange | User-generated + curated long-tail markets | Permissionless, on-chain creation |
| Typical Liquidity Profile | Deep in a few regulated verticals | Very wide, strong in trending/cultural markets | Fragmented; niche, long-tail crypto markets |
| Ideal User Profile | Regulated retail + institutional | Crypto-savvy global users | DAO and DeFi-native communities |
| Best for Cloning When You Need… | Regulated, fiat-first, tight compliance | Fast, global, crypto-native, “market on anything” | Max decentralization and governance primitives |
What This Means for Your Own Platform Build
If you’re evaluating Prediction market comparison for build-or-buy decisions:
- A Kalshi clone software gives you a regulated-feeling venue: order books, fiat flows, strong KYC/AML, and curated markets—perfect if you’re talking to US or European regulators and banks.
- A Polymarket clone script helps you target global, crypto-first audiences, especially in the UK, Europe, and LATAM, where wallets and stablecoins are normal in fintech ecosystems.
- An Augur clone script or protocol-inspired design is ideal if your product thesis is DAO-native governance, censorship resistance, or internal community-run markets.
TRUEiGTECH’s role is not just to “copy UI,” but to translate these architectural choices into a platform that fits your region, your compliance constraints, and your revenue model. That is where serious B2B value sits—well beyond surface-level “Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Augur” comparisons.
Real-World Use Cases & Geographic Suitability of Polymarket, Kalshi, and Augur
Understanding the practical applications of each prediction market platform is crucial for B2B audiences looking to align platform capabilities with regional market demands and industry-specific needs. Let’s dive into where Polymarket, Kalshi, and Augur excel geographically and by use case.
United States: Regulated Finance, Policy, and Mainstream Adoption
Kalshi is the dominant player in regulated U.S. markets, favored by financial institutions, hedge funds, and corporates managing macroeconomic, interest rate, inflation, and political risk. Its CFTC licensing and fiat settlement make it uniquely suited for sectors that require tight compliance, auditability, and institutional trust.
Use case example:
- A mid-sized investment firm in New York uses Kalshi markets to hedge against Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments and reduce portfolio volatility, achieving 35% faster risk mitigation compared to relying solely on analyst reports.
Polymarket appeals to more crypto-savvy, global-facing U.S. enterprises and retail traders engaging with speculative and cultural markets such as tech innovation, entertainment, and emerging blockchain policies. Its decentralized nature also attracts startups exploring novel decentralized finance (DeFi) integrations.
Augur remains niche in the U.S., mostly serving decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) and crypto communities valuing censorship resistance and decentralized governance.
United Kingdom & Europe: Balancing Regulation and Innovation
Europe presents a complex regulatory environment with multiple national bodies and the upcoming Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation adding clarity for crypto markets.
- Kalshi clone software or similar regulated platforms are gaining traction among UK and EU financial firms as they seek compliant solutions mirroring U.S. standards.
- Polymarket’s accessible crypto-native model is popular in fintech-forward countries like the Netherlands and Portugal, where stablecoin payments and wallets are mainstream.
- Sports betting integration, particularly for European football (soccer), tennis, and cricket, makes Polymarket-style platforms uniquely attractive.
Use case example:
- A European asset manager uses a Polymarket-inspired platform for cross-border forecasting of regulatory events and political elections, reducing compliance friction versus fragmented national-market tools.
Latin America (LATAM): Crypto-Friendly Growth and Market Democratization
LATAM users gravitate towards Polymarket’s low-friction, USDC-settled markets, which bypass local currency volatility and complex banking systems. The growing local sports fan base fuels football-focused prediction markets, with rapid adoption in Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico.
Kalshi’s regulatory model is expanding to LATAM financial hubs but remains construction-phase relative to Polymarket’s existing traction.
Internal Enterprise Prediction Markets: Google’s COVID-19 Case
Beyond external markets, enterprises use private prediction markets internally to improve forecasting accuracy and decision agility. Google’s internal COVID-19 prediction market, which aggregated employee insights on pandemic trends, demonstrated enhanced strategic planning capabilities.
TRUEiGTECH offers Polymarket clone scripts and Kalshi-style customizable platforms enabling enterprises to deploy these private markets with tailored compliance and confidentiality—a powerful use case beyond open public trading.
Choosing the Right Platform for Your Use Case & Geography
| Geography/Use Case | Kalshi | Polymarket | Augur |
| USA | Institutional finance, risk hedging | Retail crypto, speculative markets | DAO, decentralized governance |
| UK & EU | Regulated financial firms | Fintech-first crypto regions | Niche DeFi communities |
| LATAM | Emerging regulatory frameworks | Crypto-native, sports-heavy markets | Limited |
| Enterprise Internal Markets | Private, regulated use cases | Decentralized, innovation-first | DAO governance & transparency |
Conclusion
As we step back and survey the landscape of Polymarket, Kalshi, and Augur, it becomes clear these platforms each represent distinct paradigms for prediction marketplaces, shaped by differing regulatory environments, architectures, and target audiences. Understanding these nuances is essential for any serious B2B operator looking to leverage or build prediction market platforms in 2025 and beyond.
The Market Reality: No One-Size-Fits-All Winner
- Kalshi is the go-to for regulated, fiat-based, institutional and corporate users needing certainty and compliance, especially in the USA and regulated markets like the UK/EU.
- Polymarket dominates the fast-evolving, crypto-native, and globally accessible markets with its hybrid on/off-chain architecture, appealing to innovation-driven enterprises and retail sectors in LATAM, UK, and Europe.
- Augur offers maximum decentralization focused on DAO governance and tokenized community control, best suited for organizations prioritizing censorship resistance over regulatory certainty.
A Tactical Framework for Choosing Your Platform
B2B operators evaluating these platforms or considering custom builds should ask:
- Do you operate in a highly regulated environment requiring full compliance, fiat-rail support, and institutional trust? → Kalshi-style regulated platforms or Kalshi clone software
- Are you targeting crypto-native users, decentralized finance integration, or want rapid, global market creation? → Polymarket or Polymarket clone software
- Is decentralized governance and censorship resistance core to your vision, often within DAO ecosystems? → Augur or Augur market clone software
Clone Script Strategy: Accelerate Time to Market, Reduce Risk
Instead of building prediction market platforms from scratch—which often takes 6-12 months and dozens of engineers—leveraging clone scripts is a strategic shortcut that saves time and embeds proven architectures:
- TRUEiGTECH offers Kalshi clone scripts fully customized for US and European compliance demands, perfect for regulated financial markets.
- For speed and global reach, TRUEiGTECH’s Polymarket clone scripts replicate the decentralized/off-chain hybrid UX while allowing custom compliance overlay.
- Operators interested in decentralized governance models can explore Augur clone scripts that implement token-based market creation and dispute mechanisms.
The Path Forward: Innovation with Compliance and Business Value
The prediction market ecosystem is expanding aggressively, with $50 billion in annualized trading volume in regulated markets alone, and billions more flowing through decentralized platforms. Emerging regulatory clarity around crypto and DeFi further enhances enterprise confidence.
The integration of AI for fraud detection, pricing analytics, and personalized market insights will drive platform evolution—whether centralized or decentralized.
Your Next Step with TRUEiGTECH
For enterprises and innovators ready to capitalize on prediction markets’ transformative power, TRUEiGTECH offers:
- Turnkey prediction market platform development tailor-made for global regulatory landscapes.
- API and white-label clone solutions mirroring Kalshi, Polymarket, and Augur’s core mechanics.
- Compliance-first development frameworks to confidently enter regulated markets.
- Modular UI/UX designs optimized for your target geographies and verticals.
Contact TRUEiGTECH today to explore how you can fast-track your prediction marketplace launch and harness collective intelligence for competitive advantage.
FAQs
A detailed comparison of their regulatory status, architecture, user base, and market focus, helping enterprises choose the right platform model.
Kalshi, due to its CFTC-designated contract market (DCM) status, is the preferred choice for compliance-heavy markets in the USA and similar jurisdictions.
It offers rapid market creation and global accessibility but requires sophisticated risk and regulatory management, ideal for crypto-first businesses.
Enhanced censorship resistance and community governance, suitable for DAO-based and crypto-native organizational structures.
Yes, clone scripts provide pre-built architectures mimicking leading platforms’ compliance, UI, and market mechanics, enabling faster, safer market launches.
Kalshi dominates regulated event liquidity; Polymarket leads in diverse, speculative markets; Augur’s liquidity is niche and crypto-focused.
Kalshi leads in US and regulated markets; Polymarket excels globally, including LATAM and Europe; Augur is favored by global crypto communities.
Kalshi settles in fiat with a structured fee model, Polymarket uses USDC and levies relayer/network fees, and Augur relies on ETH/REP tokens with gas costs impacting trades.
Centralized exchange style for Kalshi ensures compliance and speed; Polymarket’s hybrid architecture balances decentralization and performance, Augur's fully on-chain support maximizes transparency but with complexities.
TRUEiGTECH offers turnkey prediction market platform development with clone solutions tailored to compliance regimes and enterprise needs, ensuring fast time-to-market with reduced operational risk.
Written by: Prish K
Prish K, Head of Marketing at TRUEiGTECH, holds an experience of more than 10 years in the iGaming domain. Starting from strategic planning and digital marketing to team leadership and cross-functional collaboration, he is a master of his domains. For more than a decade, he has shown a promising commitment to fostering result-driven and creative work outputs. Beyond guiding newcomers and established iGaming operators with the right software solutions for their business needs, Prish also wants to share his industry expertise and knowledge through insightful blogs and articles
